Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria

نویسندگان

  • George W. Evans
  • Bruce McGough
چکیده

A new class of near-rational sunspot equilibria is identified in economies expressed as non-linear forward-looking models. The new equilibria are natural extensions of the usual sunspot equilibria associated to the linearized version of the economy, and are near-rational in that agents use the optimal linear forecasting model when forming expectations. A generic existence result is established. Stability under learning is also examined: the near-rational sunspot equilibria are found to be E-stable provided that the linearized model’s minimal state variable solution is E-stable.

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycles under adaptive learning;

We examine the stability of equilibrium in sunspot-driven real business cycle (RBC) models under adaptive learning. We show that the general reduced form of this class of models can admit rational expectations equilibria that are both indeterminate and stable under adaptive learning. Indeterminacy of equilibrium allows for the possibility that non-fundamental “sunspot” variable realizations can...

متن کامل

Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state

We examine the nonlinear one-step forward-looking model, in which the current state is a function of the (subjective) expected value of a nonlinear function of the state next period. Stationary Markov Sunspot Equilibria (SSEs) are known to exist near an indeterminate steady state, i.e. when the derivative of the function at the steady state is bigger than one in absolute value. We show that the...

متن کامل

Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables∗

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results ...

متن کامل

Stable Finite-State Markov Sunspots∗

We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finite-state Markov process. We show that when the model is indeterminate there exists a new class of kstate dependent sunspot equilibria in addition to the k-state sunspot equilibria (k-SSEs) already known to exist in part of the ind...

متن کامل

Sunspots in a Cash-in-Advance Model: A Quantitative Assessment

Does consideration of sunspot equilibria in the cash-in-advance model help the model match key features in the US macroeconomic data? One can use the cash-in-advance model to generate predictions of macro time series via an equilibrium of the model. However, when restricted to minimum state variable stationary rational expectations equilibria, the model’s predictions do not match the data well....

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2015